Thursday, April 15, 2010

MMA Betting: Strikeforce Picks, Odds and Predictions

Strikeforce is back this weekend with three of their championship belts on the line. Online sportsbook has put up MMA odds on four great fights.

Jason "Mayhem" Miller vs. Tim Stout

The undercard fight between Jason "Mayhem" Miller and Tim Stout is showing Miller as a big favourite at -1250, while Tim Stout is getting +750.

Miller needs a victory here after losing to Jake Shields in his last bout. After that fight, Miller said he wanted to do more, and do it more effectively, obviously disappointed with the outcome. Facing Stout, he should be able to showcase his muay thai and submission skills.

This fight was put together to get Miller back on track and in the running again, which I think will happen. I'm not even thinking about a wager either way in this one.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki's

Some attractive lines showed up on the first fight on the main card. Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez is at -160, with challenger Shinya Aoki's at +130. If I'm looking for a bit of a long-shot that could pay-out, Aoki may just do it. He has a chance at submitting Melendez if he doesn't get his face re-arranged while he's on his feet. Aoki is tenacious and clever, but Melendez also has great jiujitsu skills. Aoki knows this and will look to get the fight on the ground any way he can. If you favor Melendez and his style over Aoki's, than Melendez' line is certainly decent.

Strikeforce Picks: At these odds though, I'm putting a small wager on Aoki to pull off something spectacular, like he has so many times before.

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal vs. Mousasi

The LH championship bout should be highly entertaining with both fighters having great knock out power. Ever the showman, Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal looks to me to be the best underdog pick on the card. At +180, I think King Mo is a good dog bet. He's a very powerful guy. His level of wrestling will be a new challenge for Mousasi (-220).

Mousasi will certainly be the most talented fighter King Mo has faced yet. I expect Mousasi to press for the takedown, overpower Mousasi and finish with some good King Mo ground-n-pound. I just hope King Mo's relative lack of experience will not force a mistake and end up getting the better of him.

Strikeforce Picks: I like his chance for the upset, but given Mousasi's skill and experience, I'm keeping my wager realistic.

Jake Shields vs. Dan Henderson

The last great fight on "Strikeforce: Nashville" will feature the middleweight championship bout between Jake Shields and Dan Henderson. Defending champion Shields is listed at +300 to Dan Henderson's -400. While Sheilds is certainly the deserving champion, Henderson is the deserving legend. In this match-up, Henderson may prove to be too much for Sheilds.

Hendo is the bigger, stronger man. His greco-roman wrestling prowess will serve him well as Sheilds will try to force the fight to the mat. I think Henderson outclasses Sheilds in the standup and Henderson's wrestling will prove to be the crux that Sheilds will not be able to overcome. Stylistically the fight goes to Henderson.

Strikeforce Picks: I expect Sheilds to be frustrated. Henderson by KO in the early rounds.

Good luck with your picks.

You can check the MMA Odds at Online Boxing Betting

Thursday, April 8, 2010

UFC 112 Odds and Picks - Ultimate Fight Championship Invincible

This weekend’s UFC 112: Invincible in Abu Dhabi should prove to be an excellent event. From the amazing new stadium built seemingly overnight, to the multiple championship belts on the line and the great match ups filling out the main card, UFC 112 should hold all MMA fans to their screens for the duration of the event.

Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia Pick:

For the sports betting public, there are some good underdog chances at decent underdog odds. Many online sportsbook have Anderson Silva at –800 and Demian Maia at +550. Considered by many to be the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter in the world, Anderson Silva is the obvious favorite. Maia’s best chances are on the ground and he hopes to get Silva down there so he can start to work his world-class jiujitsu in hopes of getting the upset. Silva could end the fight early if Maia can’t get close enough to get the takedown, as Silva could simply destroy Maia as he tries to close the distance. Maia does stand a real chance though if he can get Silva on the mat. If you like the dogs and absolutely must bet on the title fight, then I’d go with a nominal wager on Maia at +550. Silva at -800 doesn’t provide any value.

Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn Pick:

I’m not so sure Frankie Edgar at +550 has the same chances against BJ Penn (-800) as Maia does against Silva. I’m skipping this one myself as far as the underdog wagering goes. Aside from that, I expect Edgar will put up a good fight as he is a good wrestler and a solid well-rounded fighter. Overall this should be a good match. I expect Penn will take it before the championship rounds.

UFC 112 Picks:

The other dog bet that I mentioned last week that was worth considering was Renzo Gracie over Matt Hughes. Gracie is at +325 to Hughes’ -450. There’s a lot of talk about this fight going the distance and Hughes pulling off the UD as Gracie will challenge him on the ground but Hughes will gain the victory by controlling from the top position. I agree with some of this except that I’m giving the nod to Gracie for the underdog victory. Hughes’ record and experience will keep him working for top control and possibly going for the submission or a TKO from punches from the top. This is where Gracie lives though, and I expect Gracie to be able to withstand Hughes’ efforts and sweep for position and work the submissions to ultimately win the match. Gracie is worth a shot here.

A solid lightweight bout on the main card will feature British fighter Terry Etim (-160) against the well-rounded Brazilian Rafael dos Anjos (+130). The bout finds excitement in that both fighters are looking for some recognition in order to move up in the lightweight division. Both fighters seem to excel on the ground with Etim possessing the ability to finish more fights there as opposed to controlling the fights from that position as dos Anjos does. I’d give the edge in stand up to Etim as well, but I expect most of the fight will take place on the mat with Etim gaining the victory.

The remaining fight on the main card for UFC:
Invincible in Abu Dhabi is Kendall Groves against Mark Munoz. While I like Munoz and I think -160 for him as opposed to Groves at +130 is a fair line for this match up, I’m favoring Groves. While Munoz is a top-level wrestler, I expect Groves’ reach and jiujitsu will ultimately earn him the victory on Saturday night. I’m sticking by my pick from last week and restating that I like Groves.

My quick picks for the rest of the UFC 112:
Invincible card on Saturday are Davis, Gunderson, Osipczak, Johnson, Veach and Madsen. The only thing I’ve got to say about those is that Madsen better pull it off.

Good luck with your MMA picks.

You can check all the updated MMA odds and boxing odds and place your bet on MMA Betting, online boxing and UFC betting.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Masters Betting – Tiger Woods Props

We are T-minus three days from first-round play at this year’s Masters golf tournament at Augusta National and whadda ya know, Tiger Woods continues to dominate the headlines.

Tiger Woods held a press conference on Easter Monday and based on his comments, he seems to want to take a looser approach this time around, saying golf wasn’t enjoyable in the past and he wants to remedy that.

“When you're living a life that is a lie, life isn't fun … that's been stripped away,” Woods said at the conference.

“It feels fun again.”

Although Tiger has four green jackets, he hasn’t won at Augusta since 2005, so who knows, maybe the “fun” approach might help him in this year’s major tournament.

Online sportsbook currently have Woods listed as the odds-on favorite to win this year’s tournament at +400.

SPORTSBETTING.com manager Brian Taylor talked about the Masters betting so far, “We really saw the betting volume pick up Monday after Tiger’s press conference was carried live throughout North America. We’re expecting betting action to be up about 50% this year over last year’s Masters Tournament, and that’s based solely on the circus surrounding Tiger.”

“We usually do strong numbers on the Majors because of our unique prop betting offers and all the other betting options we put up, but this year’s tournaments we are turning things up a notch. We have a bunch of fun Tiger-focused Masters props that have been very popular for the sports betting public”

Those props include:

While Tiger is favored to take the green jacket, he is also the odds-on to lead after Round 1, listed at +800.

 - There is another prop that asks, “Will Tiger Woods Eagle any of the Par-5 holes in the tournament?”

The holes in question are holes 2, 8, 13 and 15.

During the first-round of last year’s Masters, Tiger shot par on holes 2 and 8, birdied holes 13 and 15.

However, Tiger did manage to eagle the eighth hole in the final round.

In this year’s tournament, Eldrick Woods is listed at +375 to eagle hole 8 and -550 not to.

 - Despite not winning last year (Angel Cabrera ended up winning it all) Tiger finished tied for sixth and there is a prop that asks if he will finish this year’s tournament in a better position than last.

If Tiger finishes in fifth place or higher, it will pay out at -230; if he finishes seventh or lower, it will do the same at +170.

 - Woods made a total of 280 strokes in last year’s tournament and there is an Over/Under prop for the total amount of strokes Tiger will take this year.

What’s the Total set at for the 2010 tourney? 280 of course.

One of the most memorable moments of Tiger’s storied career is the playoff with Rocco Mediate during the 2008 U.S. Open.

Will such dramatics (a playoff) happen in this year’s Masters? +400 for Yes and -1000 for No.

And SPORTSBETTING.com also listed a slew of fun ones as well.

For instance, in previous tournaments, major or otherwise, Tiger Woods has snapped when people take photos while he’s teeing off.

With all his extra-marital transgressions, there is plenty of fodder for Boo-Birds to scream at while he plays.

 - Will anyone be thrown out for heckling Tiger?
If one of the spectators does get tossed for “heckling or bad behaviour” it will pay out at +135, while if everyone is well behaved, it will pay out at -175.

 - What if Tiger does win?
 If Tiger does end his Masters victory drought and “sheds tears on camera at any point after his final shot of the day until CBS coverage ends” it will pay out at -130 (-110 if he doesn’t).

You can check all the Masters Odds

It all starts for real on Thursday morning.